Thesis detail view
The most powerful view — complete analysis of a single thesis.
Header
Breadcrumb ← All theses. Direction arrow, ticker symbol, full thesis title.
Conviction & resolution paths
| Path | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Clean | Thesis resolves as expected |
| Messy | Thesis resolves with complications |
| Broken | Thesis invalidated by events |
Blind spot & analysis
Blind spot: how much of this thesis the market hasn't recognized yet. Analysis: ✅ STRONG / ✅ STABLE / ⚠️ WEAK. Expand How to read this thesis for a plain-language guide.
D1–D4 cascade
| Depth | Label | Description | Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| D1 | Early | First assets affected — rates, FX, commodities | Headline / Event |
| D2 | Direct | Correlated assets — equities, sector ETFs | Narrative Formation |
| D3 | Target ★ | Primary asset this thesis is about | Market Positioning |
| D4 | Ripple | Secondary effects, broader impacts | Price Displacement |
Example cascade (TLT thesis)
D1 (34% blind spot): Fed speakers pushing back on cuts → TLT, IEF. D2 (62%): CPI-plus-payroll window → SPY, GLD, TLT, IEF, SHY. D3 ★ (59%): First cut drifts toward next year → TLT, GLD. D4 (60%): Borrowing costs stay stiff → TLT.
Blind spot legend
| >50% | High blind spot (large opportunity) |
|---|---|
| 20–50% | Moderate blind spot |
| <20% | Low blind spot (mostly priced in) |
How to use thesis detail
1. Read the cascade first. 2. Check D3 (Target) — primary trade idea. 3. Look at D1 and D2 for earlier entry points. 4. Monitor blind spot — shrinking means market catching up. 5. Watch resolution paths for risk profile.