Thesis detail view
The most powerful view — complete analysis of a single thesis.
Header
Breadcrumb ← All theses. Direction arrow, ticker symbol, full thesis title.
Conviction & resolution paths
| Path | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Clean | Thesis resolves as expected |
| Messy | Thesis resolves with complications |
| Broken | Thesis invalidated by events |
Blind spot & analysis
Blind spot: how much of this thesis the market hasn't recognized yet. Analysis: ✅ STRONG / ✅ STABLE / ⚠️ WEAK. Expand How to read this thesis for a plain-language guide.
D1–D4 cascade
| Depth | Label | Description | Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| D1 | Root event | The trigger — what happened | Now |
| D2 | First reaction | Direct market response on related assets | 1–7 days |
| D3 | Spillover | Second-order effects on connected markets | 7–30 days |
| D4 | Regime shift | Systemic structural change | 30–90 days and beyond |
Example cascade (TLT thesis)
D1 (34% blind spot): Fed speakers pushing back on cuts → TLT, IEF. D2 (62%): CPI-plus-payroll window → SPY, GLD, TLT, IEF, SHY. D3 ★ (59%): First cut drifts toward next year → TLT, GLD. D4 (60%): Borrowing costs stay stiff → TLT.
Blind spot legend
| >50% | High blind spot (large opportunity) |
|---|---|
| 20–50% | Moderate blind spot |
| <20% | Low blind spot (mostly priced in) |
How to use thesis detail
1. Read the cascade first. 2. D1 is the root event, D2 the first reaction, D3 the spillover, D4 the regime shift. 3. The signal is the depth–asset pair with the most room, not a single target labeled D3. 4. Monitor blind spot — shrinking means the market is catching up. 5. Watch resolution paths for how the story can match, get messy, or break.