The D1–D4 cascade
How a macro story transmits from the first headline to final price displacement.
Intellectual core
The D1–D4 framework shows how a macro story transmits through markets — from the first headline to the final price displacement.
How to read the cascade
| Depth | Label | What happens | Example assets |
|---|---|---|---|
| D1 | Early | First assets react to the raw event | Rates (TLT, IEF), FX (EURUSD), Commodities (GLD, HG) |
| D2 | Direct | Narrative forms; correlated assets move | Equities (SPY, QQQ), Sector ETFs (GDX, XME), Credit |
| D3 | Target ★ | Primary asset the thesis is about | TLT (bonds thesis), GLD (gold thesis) |
| D4 | Ripple | Secondary effects across markets | Broader risk-off, correlation breaks, vol expansion |
Where each feature lives
| Feature | Depth | Role |
|---|---|---|
| Feed | D1→D2 | What just happened, what's forming |
| Theses | D2→D3 | Narrative and positioning |
| Signals | D3→D4 | Tradeable output, price displacement |
| Blind spot | Each depth | Measured independently at every level |