D1–D4 Cascade Guide — DEPTH4 Macro Help for Traders

Intellectual core

The D1–D4 framework shows how a macro story transmits through markets — from the first headline to the final price displacement. DEPTH4 theses are causal cascades, not static predictions. D1 causes D2. D2 causes D3. D3 causes D4. Each level is a consequence of the previous, and each level can affect different assets.

Why depth matters for trading

Most traders stop at the headline and the first tick. The edge is often later in the chain: credit after rates, leadership rotation after a risk shock, regime repricing after a policy shift. Room (unpriced move) is estimated per depth, per asset, per thesis — so a story can be mostly priced at D2 while D3 still has moderate or wide room. SIGNALS conglomerate those depth–asset pairs so the dashboard shows where consensus and leftover room still align.

How to read the cascade

Depth	Label	What happens	Example assets
D1	Root event	The trigger — what happened	Rates (TLT, IEF), FX (EURUSD), Commodities (GLD, HG)
D2	First reaction	Direct market response on related assets	Equities (SPY, QQQ), Sector ETFs (GDX, XME), Credit
D3	Spillover	Second-order effects on connected markets	Credit spreads, leadership rotation, EM
D4	Regime shift	Systemic structural change	Curve shape, risk premium, policy regime

Where each feature lives

Feature	Depth	Role
Feed	D1→D2	What just happened, what's forming
Theses	D1→D4	Full cascade on the theses list
Signals	D1→D4	Best depth–asset pair, rolled up by symbol
Blind spot	Each depth	Measured independently at every level

How to use this in the app

On a thesis detail page, walk D1→D4 before you trust the SIGNAL card. Ask: what is the root event, what reacts first, what is the primary trade target, and what ripples later? If timing or assets jump levels without a causal link, treat conviction as lower until evidence catches up.

Cascade first, ticker second — that is the DEPTH4 habit.