Copper will stay bid as China's infrastructure buildout keeps demand above available supply.

If Beijing follows through with targeted infrastructure stimulus, copper demand may outstrip near-term supply and keep prices supported through the restock window. The thesis hinges on whether policymakers can generate enough industrial impulse without triggering another property bubble. Local debt limits and weak housing sales mean the upside is probably capped rather than explosive.

Copper should stay bid over the next few months if China credit and spending stimulus speeds up again on easier policy and restocking.

Market misread · Beijing needs visible growth into the political calendar but fears moral hazard in property. Copper is the high-beta read on whether stimulus is real — the incentive is enough industrial impulse to matter, not a 2009-style blank check.

Trade setup details are being refreshed as evidence lands.